Black Friday Shopping Trends 2026: What DTC Sellers Need to Know
Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in U.S. online Black Friday sales in 2026, up 9.2% year over year. Meanwhile, 41% of Black Friday shoppers surveyed by Drive Research expect to reduce their holiday spending. For direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands, the priorities are specific: explain the savings, make mobile purchasing straightforward, and clarify delivery costs, arrival conditions and shipment progress.
The figures measure different things: aggregate online spending on Black Friday and individual intentions across holiday shopping. Market growth leaves room for sales opportunities, but gives brands no reason to assume every customer has a larger budget.
Value-Conscious Shoppers Look Beyond the Discount
Drive Research finds that 78% of surveyed Black Friday shoppers participate for special discounts, while 64% believe retailers raise prices beforehand to exaggerate savings. These findings concern 1,025 respondents planning to shop Black Friday online or in person.
Discounts remain attractive, but credibility matters. The 64% figure records consumer beliefs; it does not establish that retailers manipulated prices. A prominent discount percentage may leave shoppers’ questions about actual savings unanswered.
Adobe’s U.S. holiday forecast outlines these seasonal discount ceilings against listed prices:
| Shopping period | Forecast peak discount | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Early November | Up to 14% | Seasonal upper bound; off listed price |
| Just before Thanksgiving | Up to 21% | Seasonal upper bound; off listed price |
| Cyber Week | Up to 30% | Seasonal upper bound; off listed price |
These maximums are not average discounts or offers applicable to every category and merchant.
DTC teams should check whether reference prices are supportable, thresholds and exclusions are clear, and shipping charges change the saving. Shoppers need to assess the final cost. Discount depth alone neither establishes a lower total price nor predicts improved conversion.
Mobile Spending Grows as AI Changes Product Discovery
Adobe’s forecast covers two stages: how shoppers discover products and which devices they use to buy. Both can occur within one journey, but they require separate measurement.
- Mobile spending: Adobe projects mobile devices will account for 57.4% of U.S. online spending during November–December 2026, versus 56.4% in 2025. This is a one-percentage-point increase in revenue share, not an equivalent change in shopper numbers or orders.
- AI referrals: Adobe forecasts 130% year-over-year growth in holiday traffic from AI services to U.S. retail websites, measured through shoppers clicking links. That does not predict equivalent sales growth or establish AI as the leading traffic source.
- DTC interpretation: Product descriptions should explain specifications, prices and offer conditions; mobile pages should make delivery costs and payment steps easy to follow. Assess purchases following AI referrals separately, rather than treating additional visits as evidence of stronger sales.
Delivery Expectations Extend Beyond Checkout
Among Drive Research’s surveyed Black Friday shoppers, 74% say free shipping influences where they shop, 47% value guaranteed arrival before the holidays, and 43% value fast shipping. These are reported preferences, not purchase records. They suggest delivery information should answer both “How much?” and “When?”, including eligible destinations and the conditions behind arrival promises.
DHL’s 2026 Black Friday report adds international context: 81% of its Black Friday shopper segment say they would abandon a purchase without preferred delivery options. Its underlying consumer survey covered 29,000 online shoppers across 29 countries, fielded December 15, 2025–February 11, 2026. This measures stated abandonment intentions within that segment, not observed U.S. checkout abandonment or 2026 Black Friday transactions.
For brands, delivery communication needs to connect the purchase promise with subsequent shipment information. Checkout explains charges and arrival conditions; tracking explains progress, changes and any action required. “Shipped” should not obscure the absence of a carrier movement update.
17TRACK takeaway
Brands can organize peak-season shipment communication around three questions, giving tracking pages and notifications distinct purposes:
- What is the current status? Prioritize available status information and the latest tracking event. Distinguish order processing, shipment-information creation and carrier acceptance instead of describing all three as “in transit.”
- What has changed? Notifications should identify the event and explain its implications. For delays or delivery problems, state what is known, the next step and how to contact support. Label information that remains unconfirmed.
- Which dates can be promised? Separate delivery estimates from guarantees, and keep checkout, tracking and customer-service messages consistent. Tracking and notifications communicate information; they do not accelerate transportation or replace delivery commitments supported by fulfillment operations.
Market Growth Is Not a Store-Level Guarantee
Growth in U.S. online spending cannot be translated directly into a particular DTC store’s orders, parcel volumes or profits. Brands still need to plan promotions around their categories, margins and fulfillment capacity. The evidence supports concrete priorities: make pricing claims verifiable, examine whether mobile customers can complete purchases easily, and ensure delivery promises remain consistent with subsequent shipment communications.
